By David Arbit on Monday, July 20th, 2015

The changing popularity of various home financing tools tells a unique story and shows how the government and private sector mortgage market shares have evolved through the housing crisis and subsequent recovery.

Following the ebbs and flows of the housing market itself, the mortgage finance marketplace has also transformed over the last decade. First, some scene setting. Each trendline above represents the percentage of closed sales in the Twin Cities 13-County MSA that utilized a particular form of mortgage financing, by month. No seasonal adjustments have been performed; the data is raw and comes directly from NorthstarMLS.

Between 2005 and mid-2007, conventional loans made up about 80.0 percent of all mortgages. With conventional mortgage liquidity—shall we say—plentiful, the government only represented about 5.0 percent of loans. As the economy and housing market began to unravel in 2007, the mortgage spigot was drying up. As such, the FHA started to take up that slack and became a dominant player in the mortgage marketplace. By the time of the first-time home buyer tax credit in late-2009, FHA loans comprised a whopping 45.0 percent of sales while conventional loans made up about 35.0 percent of sales. The remaining 20.0 percent include all-cash deals and other loan products.

Though its overall effectiveness remains somewhat debatable, that tax credit signaled a turning point—at least in the mortgage market. At that moment in late-2009, conventional loan market share began to recover and FHA market share started to shrink. Fast forward to present day and conventional loans now make up 60.0 percent of the market while FHA loans make up just 20.0 percent. Earlier in 2015, FHA loans made up about 15.0 percent of closed sales, which is consistent with 2004 levels. Most recognize this as a positive, as the private sector has once again assumed the majority of the risk associated with residential mortgage lending.

All-cash sales can also be illuminating, shining light in some of the more interesting nooks and crannies. Though not all cash sales reflect investor activity, it’s one of the better indications of investors in the market and can be used as a proxy.

Between 2004 and 2008, cash deals made up about 5.0 percent of all closed sales. By February 2011, about 28.0 percent of Twin Cities homes were purchased with cash—a record high. Note the dashed orange trendline. This was at the same time as distressed (foreclosure and short sale) market share was at its highest. Traditional sales volume had fallen dramatically and investors were picking up foreclosures for $0.30 – $0.70 cents on the dollar.

Of the consumers that could, even they were understandably nervous to make large purchases such as a home. Nowadays, about 12.0 percent of sales are done in cash, the lowest share in seven years, or since the middle of 2008. That reflects a mixture of fewer foreclosures and short sales, rising prices, a rising stock market attracting more capital and low inventory levels frustrating traditional buyers and investors alike.

The market numbers are well and good, but sometimes following the money can tell a unique story. The modes of financing behind the market can signal changes in investor behavior, consumer confidence, bank lending patterns and how those forces interplay with one another.
From The Skinny Blog.

By Aubray Erhardt on Friday, April 10th, 2015

The number of signed purchase agreements in the 13-county Twin Cities region surged by 30.0 percent to 5,301 contracts. Sellers were also confident, as new listings increased 21.4 percent to 7,887 during the month. That is the largest increase in pending sales since August 2011 and the highest March count since 2005. New listings showed the second largest increase since July 2013 and the highest March count since 2010. Inventory levels rose 0.7 percent to 14,127 homes, the second increase this year.

The median sales price rallied 10.5 percent higher to $210,000, the strongest gain in over a year. The median home price has now seen over 36 months of year-over-year increases. Price per square foot—which adjusts for the square footage of homes selling—rose a more modest 4.5 percent to $121. Absorption rates remained flat at 3.3 months, and suggest an overall sellers’ market. Days on market rose 7.4 percent to 102 days.

The role of foreclosures and short sales continued to diminish on both the list and buy sides. Traditional new listings comprised 92.2 percent of all seller activity, the highest level since October 2006. Traditional sales made up 84.9 percent of all closed sales, which is on-par with late-2007 levels.

The finance environment remains favorable. Mortgage rates continue to hover near multi-year lows at around 3.7 percent, compared with a long-term average of about 7.0 percent.

Improvements in the economy and household finances could partly offset the impact of rising prices and interest rates. The Twin Cities housing affordability index of 198 has been fairly stable since the end of 2014.

A diverse and robust regional economy has served the Twin Cities housing market well throughout various cycles. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Twin Cities has one of the lowest unemployment rates of any major metropolitan area in the nation at 4.0 percent.
From The Skinny Blog.

By David Arbit on Friday, March 20th, 2015

As many have noted, one of the biggest changes to the Twin Cities and national housing markets was the sudden influx and subsequent absorption of distressed properties. “Distressed” simply refers to any new listing, active listing or closed sale where the lender either owns the property (foreclosure) or the property was sold for less than the outstanding amount owed on the mortgage (short sale).

As both the public and private sectors began laying off workers in conjunction with other cost-cutting efforts around 2008 and 2009, many households begrudgingly became single-wage households or worse. That generated a notable increase in mortgage delinquencies, which led to banks repossessing homes and selling them short.

As financial institutions began listing these distressed homes for sale, buyers began taking advantage of the great deals. Many of those buyers were—and, to a lesser extent, are—investors, though some were ordinary families and individuals taking advantage of a historic opportunity.

Due to a variety of factors ranging from rising home prices to the longest stretch of private job growth in decades, the share of market activity that can be categorized as either foreclosure or short sale is easing. In 2011, foreclosures and short sales together made up exactly 50.0% of all closed sales in the 13-county metropolitan area even though they comprised less than 42.0% of all new listings. This means they made up a larger share of the sales pie than the listing pie, signaling robust demand for these bargain properties.

Fast forward to 2014. Last year, only 12.2% of all new listings were in distress while the figure was 16.4% for closed sales. Those numbers mark a dramatic decrease in the prevalence of distressed listing and sales activity in the Twin Cities region. Most of the active listings (inventory) in this segment has been absorbed off the market and institutions are listing fewer and fewer of them.

So why should you care about any of this? Fair question. After all, foreclosure market share doesn’t exactly make for exciting backyard barbeque conversations, unless you’re a housing researcher (I swear I have friends that aren’t computers). But who doesn’t love talking about home prices? There never seems to be a shortage of speculation regarding where home prices might be heading next. Some think we’re in another bubble, others think we’re returning to historically typical levels of stable price appreciation.

Since prices seem to be the preferred market barometer of choice for most consumers (anyone heard of an absorption rate or even price per square foot?), it stands to reason that many consumers and real estate professionals alike would have a vested interest in better understanding what’s affecting home prices.

By far the biggest factor affecting home prices is the percentage of all sales that are distressed—i.e. the distressed sales rate. Coincidentally, that is exactly what’s shown in the blue trendline to the left. Also plotted here is the median sales price for the metro. This chart shows the nature and strength of the relationship between the distressed market share and home prices.

The nature of the relationship is an inverse one and the magnitude is quite strong. In other words, when distressed market share increases, home prices tend to fall and vice versa. And you can just about bet the farm on that one. For those who are wondering, the R-square between these two variables is 0.9425 and the relationship is statistically significant. This means that about 94.25% of the variation in home prices can be attributed to variability in distressed market share. If you had a 94.25% chance of success in betting big on a single stock or a poker hand or your favorite Canterbury horse, wouldn’t you?

Gazing into the proverbial crystal ball, expect distressed market activity to fall below 10.0% for closed sales and likely below 8.0% for new listings. But those are just prognostications. Ultimately, if you’re wondering where home prices are heading next, simply follow the percentage of all closed sales that are either foreclosures or short sales.

Wasn’t that fun? Until next time!

From The Skinny Blog.

By Aubray Erhardt on Thursday, September 11th, 2014

Inventory in the 13-county Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area is up 8.7 percent from last year. August was only the sixth month of year-over-year inventory gains. Consumers now have 18,205 homes from which to choose. New listings were flat, increasing just 0.1 percent to 6,958, while market-wide pending sales decreased 7.0 percent to 4,802. Overall closed sales were down 7.3 percent from last year to 5,291 units.

With 4.4 months supply of inventory, the absorption rate is consistent with a transitioning market approaching balanced territory. Sellers are still seeing multiple offers on quality listings but buyers don’t have to compete quite as hard over limited supply. The sales mix continued to favor traditional homes that sell in less time and at higher price points. The median sales price rose 5.3 percent to $219,001. That’s the highest August median sales price since 2007, and the 30th consecutive year-over-year increase.

Prices hinge upon a variety of factors, including supply and demand but also changes in market share based on area or segment. While new listings rose only 0.1 percent overall, traditional new listings rallied 10.9 percent higher while foreclosure and short sale new listings fell 49.3 percent and 46.6 percent, respectively. Similarly, overall closed sales were down 7.3 percent, but traditional closed sales rose 4.6 percent while foreclosure and short sale closings fell 50.4 percent and 58.0 percent. Market-wide inventory levels increased 8.7 percent but traditional inventory surged 24.5 percent while foreclosure and short sale inventory levels both fell dramatically.

Contrary to most economists’ forecasts, interest rates remain lower than last year. That’s helped buyers take advantage of the attractive affordability environment. The Twin Cities housing affordability index was mostly flat, down just 1.1 percent from last August to 176 – meaning the median household income was 176 percent of what is necessary (or 76 percent greater than the minimum needed) to qualify for the median-priced home under current interest rates. While the affordability index is below its peak in 2012, it remains well above its long-term average.

Those shopping for homes now have the largest pool of traditional properties to choose from since mid-2010. A growing share of activity now falls into the more desirable traditional segment – 90.6 percent of new listings, 89.4 percent of closed sales and 88.0 percent of all inventory. Those are the highest figures since April 2007, August 2007 and July 2007, respectively. Days on market fell 2.9 percent to 68 days; the median list price rose 6.9 percent $235,000; and price per square foot rose 5.3 percent to $126.

House hunters in the 13-county Twin Cities metropolitan area are finally getting more to choose from. Inventory levels were up 6.1 percent to 16,368 homes for sale in May 2014. This comes as new listings were up 3.0 percent to 8,572 and pending sales were down 9.0 percent to 5,260. Even though overall buyer demand remains below 2013 levels, it’s still well above 2011 and 2012 levels. Moreover, buyer demand increased for traditional homes.

Absorption rates actually slowed to 3.9 months of supply, thanks to recent inventory increases. Even with more supply and less demand, the mix of sales continues to skew away from distressed properties and toward traditional homes that sell at higher price points. Consequently, the median sales price rose 8.2 percent to $210,000 – the highest May median sales price since 2007 and tied for the highest median price for any month since December 2007.

Though new listings rose 3.0 percent compared to last May, traditional new listings rose 14.1 percent while foreclosure and short sale new listings fell 44.0 percent and 47.7 percent, respectively. Similarly, though pending sales were down 9.0 percent, traditional pending sales rose 0.7 percent while foreclosure and short sale pendings fell 39.3 percent and 47.3 percent. And again, overall inventory was up 6.1 percent but traditional inventory was up 25.9 percent as foreclosure inventory fell 36.6 percent and short sale inventory plummeted by 53.6 percent.

With inventory up, consumers now have the largest pool of homes for sale in almost a year. Inventory hasn’t shown this many consecutive year-over-year increases in about 3½ years. Perhaps more importantly, a larger share of that inventory falls under the more desirable traditional segment.

“Yes there’s more inventory, but not in all areas or price points,” said Emily Green, President of the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS® (MAAR). “The lack of supply is really starting to weigh on consumers and on sales numbers. This market has been supply-constrained for long enough, but the trend is moving in a positive direction.”

As a result of this ongoing shift toward higher-priced and higher-quality product, the median sales price for the metro rose 8.2 percent to $210,000. That now makes 27 straight months of year-over-year price gains. Also helping along price recovery is the fact that foreclosures and short sales made up only about 10.0 percent of all new listings and about 15.0 percent of all closed sales. Those are the lowest figures since October 2007 and May 2007, respectively.

Homes continued to sell quickly, as days on market was down 7.0 percent to 80 days, on average. Sellers are receiving an average of 96.8 percent of their original list price. The Twin Cities now has 3.9 months’ supply of inventory, just a tad higher than last May and consistent with this phase of market recovery.

“More inventory really is a good sign,” said Mike Hoffman, MAAR President-Elect. “But housing relies heavily on the economy. That said, job growth, unemployment, consumer confidence and family financial situations must continue to show improvement.”

House hunters in the 13-county Twin Cities metropolitan area are finally getting more to choose from. Inventory levels were up 6.1 percent to 16,368 homes for sale in May 2014. This comes as new listings were up 3.0 percent to 8,572 and pending sales were down 9.0 percent to 5,260. Even though overall buyer demand remains below 2013 levels, it’s still well above 2011 and 2012 levels. Moreover, buyer demand increased for traditional homes.

Absorption rates actually slowed to 3.9 months of supply, thanks to recent inventory increases. Even with more supply and less demand, the mix of sales continues to skew away from distressed properties and toward traditional homes that sell at higher price points. Consequently, the median sales price rose 8.2 percent to $210,000 – the highest May median sales price since 2007 and tied for the highest median price for any month since December 2007.

Though new listings rose 3.0 percent compared to last May, traditional new listings rose 14.1 percent while foreclosure and short sale new listings fell 44.0 percent and 47.7 percent, respectively. Similarly, though pending sales were down 9.0 percent, traditional pending sales rose 0.7 percent while foreclosure and short sale pendings fell 39.3 percent and 47.3 percent. And again, overall inventory was up 6.1 percent but traditional inventory was up 25.9 percent as foreclosure inventory fell 36.6 percent and short sale inventory plummeted by 53.6 percent.

With inventory up, consumers now have the largest pool of homes for sale in almost a year. Inventory hasn’t shown this many consecutive year-over-year increases in about 3½ years. Perhaps more importantly, a larger share of that inventory falls under the more desirable traditional segment.

“Yes there’s more inventory, but not in all areas or price points,” said Emily Green, President of the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS® (MAAR). “The lack of supply is really starting to weigh on consumers and on sales numbers. This market has been supply-constrained for long enough, but the trend is moving in a positive direction.”

As a result of this ongoing shift toward higher-priced and higher-quality product, the median sales price for the metro rose 8.2 percent to $210,000. That now makes 27 straight months of year-over-year price gains. Also helping along price recovery is the fact that foreclosures and short sales made up only about 10.0 percent of all new listings and about 15.0 percent of all closed sales. Those are the lowest figures since October 2007 and May 2007, respectively.

Homes continued to sell quickly, as days on market was down 7.0 percent to 80 days, on average. Sellers are receiving an average of 96.8 percent of their original list price. The Twin Cities now has 3.9 months’ supply of inventory, just a tad higher than last May and consistent with this phase of market recovery.

“More inventory really is a good sign,” said Mike Hoffman, MAAR President-Elect. “But housing relies heavily on the economy. That said, job growth, unemployment, consumer confidence and family financial situations must continue to show improvement.”

Home sales in the 13-county Minneapolis–St. Paul metropolitan area have appeared lackluster of late on the surface, but if you turn the dirt, you’ll see more intriguing colors in the flowering market mix. Overall closed sales were down 11.9 percent to 3,806 for April 2014, but traditional sales were actually up 1.4 percent. The total was brought down by a 41.8% decline in foreclosure sales and 40.8% decrease in short sales.

Increased seller activity is critical to replenishing inventories. New listings rose 10.2 percent to 7,776 newly listed homes, a welcome sign for prospective buyers. Inventory levels are still constrained, but consumers should have more options to choose from this year than last year.

With higher prices and more buyers on the prowl, more sellers are able to go the traditional route. Traditional new listings rose 25.7 percent compared to last year at this time, while foreclosure and short sale new listings fell 41.6 percent and 49.6 percent, respectively.

On the demand side, pending sales declined 3.9 percent to 5,127 properties overall, once again reflecting less distressed market activity. Traditional pending sales were up 8.2 percent while pending foreclosure and short sales fell 40.4 and 35.1 percent, respectively. The inventory of homes for sale in the Twin Cities is now at 14,429 properties, 1.5 percent more than last year at this time, marking the first year-over-year increase since October 2013 and the largest increase since January 2011.

“We’re seeing the return of a real estate market led by traditional listings and sales,” said Emily Green, President of the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS® (MAAR). “Coupled with more inventory – attractive inventory – it’s setting up to be an exciting year for buyers and sellers.”

As a result of the ongoing shift in the types of homes being sold, the median sales price for the metro rose 8.0 percent to $197,000. That’s 26 straight months of year-over-year price gains. Foreclosures and short sales now make up just 11.4 percent of all new listings. Last April, they made up 22.4 percent. For closed sales, the number fell from 31.3 to 20.9 percent.

On average, homes spent 89 days on the market, down 8.2 percent from last April. Sellers are receiving an average of 95.9 percent of their original list price. The Twin Cities now has 3.4 months’ supply of inventory, the same mark that it was last April.

“Distressed inventory has made up the majority of the lower price ranges, and that market is evaporating,” said Mike Hoffman, MAAR President-Elect. “We can anticipate more negotiations and transactions with people rather than banks.”

All information is according to the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS® (MAAR) based on data from NorthstarMLS. MAAR is the leading regional advocate and provider of information services and research on the real estate industry for brokers, real estate professionals and the public. MAAR serves the Twin Cities 13-county metro area and western Wisconsin. 10K Research and Marketing, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of MAAR.

After being cooped up for a long, cold winter, homeowners in the 13-county Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area showed renewed signs of optimism in March. Seller activity rose 5.5 percent to 6,492 newly listed homes, a crucial increase toward fueling buyer demand. Inventory levels are still hovering near a 10-year low, but consumers should have more options to choose from this year compared to recent years. Pending sales were 8.4 percent lower, resulting from a desired shift to less foreclosure and short sale activity. Most indicators continue to suggest ongoing recovery and stabilization.

It’s imperative to understand market activity by segment. Buyers are now leaning toward traditional purchases first because they are making up a greater share of the marketplace. These properties also tend to be in better condition, many come with warranties and traditional sellers tend to be more cooperative than banks. New traditional listings rose 22.1 percent compared to March 2013, while foreclosure and short sale new listings fell 39.9 and 53.8 percent, respectively.

On the demand side, pending sales declined 8.4 percent to 4,141 properties overall, which still reflects less distressed market activity. Once again, traditional pending sales were up 2.6 percent while pending foreclosure and short sales fell 32.2 and 45.1 percent, respectively. Consumers shopping for homes now have 13,086 properties to choose from – or 4.1 percent fewer than last year at this time, marking the smallest year-over-year decline since November 2013.

“There’s a lot of excitement and positive energy out there, especially among sellers,” said Emily Green, President of the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS® (MAAR). “Some would-be sellers have been lifted out from underwater by rising prices and less competition from foreclosures, while other move-up buyers are also eager to buy.”

The lowest price point of the market is evaporating. As a result, the median sales price for the metro rose 7.6 percent to $190,000, marking 25 straight months of year-over-year price gains. Last March, foreclosures and short sales made up 25.2 percent of all new listings. This March, they made up just 13.3 percent. For closed sales, the number fell from 37.6 to 26.6 percent.

On average, homes spent just 95 days on the market, 12.0 percent less than last March. Sellers are receiving an average of 95.0 percent of their original list price. The Twin Cities now has 3.1 months’ supply of inventory, suggesting a favorable selling environment. Importantly, interest rates remain affordable and well below their long-term average.

“Traditional properties are dominating the market again,” said Mike Hoffman, MAAR President-Elect. “As distressed product clears the pipeline, consumers are more likely to embark upon negotiations and transactions with people rather than banks.”

Minneapolis, Minnesota (March 12, 2014) – The 13-county Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area housing market was negatively affected by the extreme winter. Inventory levels are also still hovering at a 10-year low, meaning consumers have far less product to purchase than in recent years. Another factor dragging down the headline numbers is the shift away from distressed homes and back toward traditional activity. Most indicators continue to suggest ongoing recovery, stabilization and normalization. Spring will offer better clues as to the health of the Twin Cities housing market.

Although new listings declined 5.0 percent to 4,616 overall, seller activity is likely to pick up during the spring and summer months. Additionally, and as has been the case for 22 consecutive months, new listings in the higher-priced traditional segment rose 9.1 percent over the same period, while foreclosure and short sale new listings fell 34.5 and 54.6 percent, respectively.

On the demand side, closed sales were down 14.0 percent to 2,465 properties overall, which speaks to the low number of weather-impeded purchase agreements entered into during January. Once again, traditional closed sales were up 6.7 percent while foreclosure sales and short sales fell 33.4 and 61.9 percent, respectively. Consumers shopping for homes now have 11,975 properties to choose from – or 9.6 percent fewer than February 2013.

“It was an interesting month,” said Emily Green, President of the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS® (MAAR). “While the market shifts back toward where it was before the bubble, we expect to see foreclosures and short sales become less prevalent, which can dilute overall numbers. Then you have the weather.”

As a result of this shift, the median sales price for the metro rose a strong 14.4 percent to $183,044, officially marking 24 straight month of year-over-year median price gains. Last February, foreclosures and short sales comprised 43.9 percent of all closed sales. This February, these segments made up 30.3 percent of all sales. Traditional homes are selling at a median price of $210,000; foreclosures for $131,100; short sales for $150,000.

On average, homes spent just 99 days on the market, 10.8 percent less than last year. Sellers are receiving an average of 93.5 percent of their original list price. The Twin Cities now has 2.8 months’ supply of inventory, suggesting a favorable selling environment. Importantly, interest rates remain affordable and well below their long-term average.

“The fundamentals haven’t changed.” said Mike Hoffman, MAAR President-Elect. “Our local economy is diverse and growing and so is our population. It’s important not to read too much into minor fluctuations like this.”

Lower supply levels, strong demand and higher prices are among the encouraging developments in 2013 that brought about ongoing market recovery. Consumer purchase demand increased notably, reaching levels not seen since 2005. As the active supply of homes for sale fell to an 11-year low, absorption rates improved to levels not seen since before 2003. Low but upwardly-mobile interest rates, affordable prices and record housing affordability resulted in an 8.8 percent increase in home sales for the 13-county metro.

2013 by the Numbers

• Sellers listed 72,128 properties on the market, a 9.4 percent increase from 2012 and the first gain in seven years.
• Buyers closed on 53,087 homes, up 8.8 percent from 2012 and the highest figure since 2005.
• Inventory levels dropped 10.5 percent from 2012 to 11,646 units, the lowest level in 11 years.
• Months Supply of Inventory dropped 18.8 percent to 2.6 months, also an 11-year low.
• The Median Sales Price of closed sales rose 14.4 percent to $192,000, marking a five-year high. o This measure of home prices is 16.5 percent below its 2006 peak and 28.0 percent above its 2011 valley
• Cumulative Days on Market was down 29.1 percent to 83 days, on average—an eight-year record pace.
• Lender-mediated properties made up a significantly smaller share of overall activity across multiple metrics
• 21.6 percent of all New Listings were lender-mediated (either foreclosures or short sales), down from 34.7 percent in 2012 and 41.9 percent in 2011
• 25.6 percent of all Inventory was lender-mediated, down from 38.8 percent in 2012 and 44.4 percent in 2011
• 26.4 percent of all Closed Sales were lender-mediated, down from 39.7 percent in 2012 and 50.0 percent in 2011

Potent Quotables

“We are quite pleased with the breadth and depth of this recovery. The increase in seller activity was hugely important. Motivated by still-low interest rates, rising rents and more job opportunities, buyers drove home sales to an eight-year high,” said Emily Green, President of the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS®.

“As always, market conditions vary from neighborhood to neighborhood, but homeowners are feeling energized by these ongoing improvements,” said Michael Hunstad, President of the Saint Paul Area Association of REALTORS®. “Though markets vary, many areas of the metro are seeing homes selling in record time and with multiple offers.”

Improvements in the local economy will boost the Twin Cities real estate market in 2014. The outlook is positive: job growth is accelerating, interest rates remain attractive and an unemployment rate well below the nation’s are all reasons our region continues to outperform.